Dashboard: Don’t Believe the AI Hype (Yet)

[Music] Welcome to another 21 Hats dashboard. I'm Lauren Felman and I'm here with Jean Marks. Hello Jean. Hello Lauren. How you doing? I am doing good. How are you? I'm doing very well, thank you. I've been traveling all over the country. I was in Denver speaking to a whole association. Actually, it's a a company that uh their dealer network that has overhead doors, you know, like garage doors. Uhhuh. And then I went all the way down to Alabama and spoke to the Southeastern Vendors Association, vending machine uh association from Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Georgia. Fascinating, fascinating stuff. What are you hearing out there on the road? So, um um it depends on the industry that you're at. I mean, the overhead door people are are relying on construction and real estate and home improvements and all that kind of stuff. And so they've been challenged um you know over the past couple of years. Um the vending machine people doing okay. You know they that that association's been around. Um it's just a different it it it's an absolutely different um perspective on the US. They're they're they're running profitable companies. The vending machine people um these are good people. You know you say a prayer before the meeting starts. You know um you go in you do your thing. Um, I I like to talk about regulations and things impacting the industry, except because I'm speaking to the people from the southeastern part of the country. There really aren't a lot of regulations in the states that impact them, you know. I mean, so I've heard. Yeah. Yeah. People from like New York or California or Illinois, that's a different story, but uh but so it was just it's just a different perspective. Um but anyway, uh so people are which I'm seeing across the country at all these different associations there and I just wrote a piece for the Guardian that kind of summed up like seven different small business surveys that are basically saying that most small businesses around the country are muddling along. No, you know, spectacular growth just speaking in general and still a lot of uncertainty out there. Although that uncertainty is starting to diminish a little bit which is good news and I'm seeing that when I'm on the road too. So last week, uh, Andy Jasse, the CEO of Amazon, had some things to say about AI and the impact it's going to have on headcount, um, at at his business and and many others. Um, I know you have some thoughts about that. I really do. So Andy Jass, he came out and and and made an announcement about how Amazon is going to be cutting employees and it's it's it's because of AI, you know, it's going to be and he's giving advice to employees how to keep their jobs, which I'll touch on soon. Um, and that kind of comes on the heels of a lot of big companies. Um, there was a report in CNBC recently and and also on the Wall Street Journal about how many big companies are are shedding, you know, staff, particularly, you know, white collar workers. Microsoft just announced 6,000 layoffs, you know, I mean, this past week as well. So, um, it's going on across the country. I don't People are pointing their fingers towards AI and the tech, you know, companies are pointing their fingers towards AI. I'm not so sure it's AI yet, Lauren. I really I really don't. I mean, I I I feel very very certain that um AI is going to be a factor in in job losses in the in the near not not too distant future, but I think all the job cuts that we're seeing right now from these large companies, tech companies, is I think they're cutting the fat. It's it's really what they're doing. they're they're they're kind of staying under the cover of AI um and and and a slowing economy and tariffs and all of that and uh saying they got to tighten their belts and they're getting rid of people that um probably would have been on the chopping block regardless of AI or not. So, you're kind of saying some of it has to do with that uncertainty you were talking about. It is. It's uncertainty and it's also just overhiring and just, you know, you know, performers, underperforming people as well. And um I don't know man like I can't tell you like I do work with some big corporations and I can't tell you how many meetings I go on Zoom calls where there's like 14 people on a call you know and I think to myself like really you know do all these people really are they all what are they all doing these people you know and you know I always thought that like you large companies they they like to you take advantage of the news um and and use it you know to their advantage to cut people when you know and and blame it on something else when really it's just a matter of um them cutting the fat. I mean Microsoft's recent round of layoffs is mostly like sales and admin and those types of people. So I think that's you know that's important. So you know this is a small business podcast. So you know how does this affect small business? I mean that was my next question. Yeah there's a couple of takeaways here. First of all, laying off people is not good for small business in general because people uh employees at Microsoft or any of these companies, they go to uh their pizza shops and their dry cleaners and their local restaurants and if they're out of work, they're not going to be spending money at those places, you know, while there's there were that uncertainty. So, I do think that has an indirect impact on a lot of local small businesses when you hear these companies laying people off. On the good side, um it it certainly puts people into the talent pool that can be hired. I mean, we're we've got such tight talent as it is that it's great to see that uh you know, it's not great to see, but it's you know, it might be a help for small businesses who want to, you know, who want to be hiring. So, that's also good. And I think it's also just though a um um a warning of things to come though. Um the big tech companies fell over themselves over the past year or two saying that AI was not going to replace people and it's just going to make people more productive. And these very same companies that were saying that um are now firing their own people and saying it's because of AI, you know. So um I think we need to read the memo here and know that this technology, this AI technology, you are a fool if you are firing somebody because you think you can replace them with AI. That's a joke. Because AI all anybody will tell you who uses it. And you got to agree to this, Lauren, right? I mean it's it's it's unreliable. It's inaccurate. it hallucinates. It's incomplete. You know, you just you're crazy if you replace people with AI right now, but it's gonna get better. And I think that's I don't know that I do agree with that. Um why you say that? Well, certainly the hallucinations you're talking about exist and that's a factor. And anybody because certainly anybody who just takes AI work product and releases it to the public is a fool. I I certainly agree with that. But I, you know, the some of the stuff that it can do and some of the things I'm hearing about, you know, the ability to create a website, you know, somebody who doesn't know how anything about coding can now create a website themselves. You know, we're talking about vibe coding and this whole movement in that direction. I don't know if it's exactly here today, but it's certainly coming. And I just don't see any way that that's not going to cost people jobs. Oh, there's no question about it. But that's exactly what I just said. I don't think it's a near-term thing, but right away thing, but it's in the not too distant future. I think like maybe next week, not too distant future. I don't think that's but I am I am telling you don't be duped by this stuff because you you you give the example of creating websites and yeah there are a number of AI platforms and applications that say that they will create websites before you before you you you come to a conclusion on that you just give it a shot yourself you try go ahead take one of those platforms and try to create a website for 21 hats well I've spoken to someone who did it I had somebody actually on this podcast Allan Pence right? Who um talked us through a website that he created in 1 hour on a tool called Replet that I'm sure you're familiar with. And um and he told us, you know, while we were talking on the podcast, he told us to go to the website and check it out. And you know, it it's it's not the most advanced website I've ever been on, but it worked. That's the point. That's the point. I understand that um it it worked to a certain extent, but it's still not ready for prime time. Do you know what I mean? It's it's like Microsoft Copilot has, you know, as as the ability to create a PowerPoint presentation and you're like, "Wow, this is unbelievable. It'll create a PowerPoint right from a document." So, you do it and you start playing with it. You're like, "Okay, it did. created a PowerPoint presentation, but it's really a shitty presentation and I'm spending all this time going through and fixing it and then I ask it to do stuff and it still doesn't understand what it wants me to do and I'm, you know, still spinning around. There was an article just two weeks ago in the Wall Street Journal. It was two tech reporters from the Wall Street Journal. dove into Google's new video uh application VO um to create a movie you know and read the article and they they'll tell you like this is you know it is not what it it's exciting and you can see where it's going but it's not creating anywhere near a finished project you know product you know it is there is still a lot more work that needs to be done and that that gets me back to my original point about it's it's not there yet this stuff you see where it's going it's exciting but it's just it is It's It's not ready for prime time. None of this AI stuff is yet. And you know, people that are getting rid of their employees. That's why I'm saying I don't I don't know if I really believe these large tech companies are replacing their employees with AI right now. I think they're using it as a cover. But I I do think that, you know, in the next couple years, yeah, there there will certainly be many applications that can be used to replace I'll give you another example. You wanted to say something. I'm sorry. Go ahead. Uh I I was just going to say there are a couple of things that I would um want to ask you about. One is I keep hearing the same line from small business owners. uh it's kind of become a mantra I think where they are saying hey listen especially talking to their own employees AI is not going to take your job but we are going to use it in any way we can and we have to figure out what processes we can improve with the use of AI because it's not going to take your job but it is going to take the job of people who don't figure out how to use it. Yeah. And I think that makes a certain amount of sense, but I think it goes a little bit too far cuz I really do believe a lot of people are going to lose jobs uh when AI keeps getting better. Well, um I I could not agree with you more that a lot of people are going to lose jobs. I mean, we don't see um you know, a lot of blacksmiths around today. You know, uh used to be in the 19th century, people would crawl up on light posts in Paris and turn off the street lights and turn them on every you know, every morning. Um, there used to be a a big industry, Lauren, in the early 20th century in England of uh knockeruppers. Are you familiar with those? Knocker uppers. That's it's knocker uppers. Yeah, exactly. Oh, I know what it sounds like and I know where your mind's going. I know you too well. But no, it's not. A knocker upper was somebody who would um tap on people's windows in the morning to wake them up because there was no alarm clocks. And there were apparently thousands of them throughout Europe, people that were doing this. this was their job. Well, I'll tell you a funny story. I used to work as a business reporter for the Columbus Dispatch in Columbus, Ohio. And even in Columbus, very few people know this, but Columbus led the world in the creation of everything you need to run a horse and carriage before cars came along. The I think it was the Columbus Carriage Company, the name was something like that. and they were experimenting w with with wi with engines and they might have Columbus could have been Detroit except there was a big flood that wiped out the company. Um but this this was you know before Henry Ford this was like the 1910s in 1980 I found a guy who was still he had his own little oneperson foundry and he was still making the fittings for a horsedrawn carriage. He had one client. Do you know who his one client was? gone. Budweiser, the Clydesales, the Clydesales. That's great. So, some of these businesses do manage to hang on, but obviously not the way they once were. I agree. I mean, and by the way, I made the comment about blacksmiths. There are still blacksmiths around in, you know, you know, in in certain limited use and um and good for that. But anyway, like to your point, yeah, there's no question that AI is going to be replacing these jobs. And I can see the writing on the wall right now. Um the agents that are that are just starting to be rolled out this year like Microsoft their Dynamics agents are going to qualify sales and confirm orders and automatically send out orders and reconcile bank accounts and uh you know take in cash receipts and match them with invoices. All the stuff that humans are doing right now um that's what Microsoft is promising with its agents. And then there are all these web agents that are being rolled out uh for testing by Google and Anthropic uh that that are uh again as somebody sitting in front of a you know you know a computer or a workstation the web agents just can take over and start clicking through booking a flight on Expedia just on a command going out and searching the internet and finding contact information of 50 companies that are in your your industry along with email address just doing it clicking through and doing that is just it's a web agent, you know, on your behalf. All that stuff's going to replace people there. I mean, it there's no question about it. And and a couple things I think are going to happen because of it. First of all, this is not going to happen right away. This gets back to what I said earlier. I mean, small businesses are looking to to you know, you know, increase their productivity. your best bet as a uh a business owner to increase your productivity is to lean into a chatbot or two like chat GPT or um you know Gemini or C-Pilot pay the monthly fee and use it a lot like you know instead of paying a lawyer you know to spend eight hours to create a a policy you use a chatbot to create the policy and then have the lawyer review it to make sure that it's right you know instead of uh you know you you having your HR person create create a job description, use the chatbot to create the job description, and then have the HR person review it to make sure that it looks okay. That's productivity, you know, and I'm also telling my clients, as as shitty as some of this Gemini and co-pilot stuff is right now, it's getting better. So I'm like, man, you are at the point if you own Office or you own Google Workspace, you should absolutely be hiring an outside consultant, a Microsoft or a Google consultant to train your people on how to use this stuff better and more effectively. And I truly believe, particularly because we're so short staffed in our businesses, that, you know, once your people get over the fear of AI and they start using it to create powerpoints or analyze spreadsheets or compose better emails and all that kind of stuff, you know, they will be more productive and doing a better job. And I still don't think businesses are going to be getting rid of people right away anyway because we need these people. And by the way, I think when you're doing things better and more productive and you know have a little bit of breathing room, I think that that um you creates a better you work balance and a work life for a lot of our employees. And I'm optimistic about so long as they're they remain employed as long as they do. I just don't I don't think you're going to see these these mass, you know, layoffs occurring, you know, right away. Well, maybe it starts with people not being hired. I mean, we've seen some CEOs talk about um the the CEO of Shopify said that uh no longer can anybody be hired unless it's been demonstrated that AI can't do the job. And I hate that, by the way. I hate when CEOs of companies make those kinds of announcements. Um it's so arrogant and it's so ignorant because now you're like, what do you think if you're an employee at Shopify? You're like, Jesus, this guy will [ __ ] replace me in a second. He's not even hiring people unless they, you know, you can prove AI can't do it. I mean, it just sends out such a bad message culturally to your employees. So, I don't know. I I I it is going to be Look, I've been in the technology industry, you know, for more than 20 years. I've seen the growth of e-commerce. I've seen the growth of the cloud. I've seen the growth of mobile. And now we see AI and everything thinks it's going to completely change the universe. It's going to make things better and make people do better work and better jobs and more productive. But I don't think you're going to see mass layoffs and mass hiring um anytime in the near future because this stuff just still needs a lot of it needs a lot of work. It really even they talk about robotics. There are a lot of companies making Boston Dynamics and Dynamics and Atlas robotics are making some really cool stuff and they're integrating AI technology from Google and other companies. Um you go on their websites, you see some of the the videos, it's like wow. But they're still just years away of being the same kind of capable humans. So they can they can add and they can help. Um but you know replacing these humans are going to be um I I think we're a ways off from doing that right now. People just not need to be sewing so so afraid and they need to lean into this stuff to do their jobs better. All right. I want to ask you about something else. I I don't know if this is anything, but I keep seeing this commercial for a company called Service Now, and it it features the actor Idris Elba, and he's walking through workplaces and talking about this new technology they've got that it's connects networks. It does all this stuff. I I can't figure out what the product is. And and and I'm curious whether it's something that small businesses should should be aware of. Well, do do you know what's going on with that? Yeah, I mean, Service Now has been around for a while. Um, they have a number of products. Their main focus has been um the IT help desk. Okay. So, this is a big company. you know, their customers are larger companies. And what those companies do is, you know, if you have a help desk and you need to create tickets and you need to um you know, you you you fix device issues, a problem with a printer, a problem with security, a problem with uh you know, connection, service now provides you with a lot of applications to help you manage those problems, search those problems, and then they're introducing a bunch of AI tools now that um are hopefully automating that process as well. so that the I you know the IT help desk can be uh more efficient and more productive and answer the questions faster. Now they also have a CRM component. They have applications for human resources too but it's really more designed for my opinion for midsize and larger companies to use. I don't believe it is a small business you know type of product that that should be considered. So the one thing that I think is interesting about Service Now though is they're doing what a lot of companies are doing. They're they're introducing AI agents. Um I mentioned before Microsoft Dynamics agents, it's the same thing. Every big tech company um you know are are rolling out new AI features and there a lot of them are using agents to perform tasks in the background. And I just have to tell you, if you're a business owner, if you're using QuickBooks or you're using, I don't know, Epicor Sage or Dynamics or whatnot, Salesforce, you need to be reaching out to those vendors and understanding what AI agents that they are rolling out for their products. And then you should be using them and leaning into them and getting training for your employees to use this stuff as well. It's this is no different than any other features that have been rolled out in the past for software. AI is now a large component of those features and um these software companies are investing hundreds of millions of dollars in this stuff. It's our job to understand them so we can use them better. Do these AI agents fall into the category of what you described before as something that's really promising but not quite there yet? 100%. And and with all due respect to Service Now, I'm sure their AI agents are just great, but I think that they're probably nowhere near what they would be or what they will be just a few years from now. And you know, the best example I can give you is, you know, any type of software that comes out in a version 1.0, you know, it's not going to it's going to be inadequate and buggy and and lacking a lot of capabilities. But as the software gets better and used and better trained and expanded, obviously it becomes, you know, more accurate and more reliable. So, I do think though, you know, you should be asking your vendors about these things. I think you should be checking it out. I think you should be testing it. I think you should be, you know, paying for some training to your employees to use it as well, just in a limited way. You're not replacing anybody with it and you're not relying on it for your core operations, god forbid, but you should start getting yourself familiar with these AI tools because as they get better and better, they will have a significant impact on your business. Are there any AI tools that you yourself are using right now and you're excited about? all generative AI and I am using um I'm using a lot of Gen AI um like chat GPT for example there is not a decision I make in my business now a contract that I do um even financial statements even with clients I upload financial statements and I'm asking chat GBT and co-pilot by the way to give me their insights on these financials anything that I'm missing you upload the financial statements of your clients yeah I do okay do they know that Um, no, now that you bring it up, I should probably let them know that. That's a very good point. Um, but I do share. Um, you know, I had another client where I they have an employee handbook and I uploaded that and I said, "Give me your thoughts on it." And I got news for you. The thoughts that it gives me back, um, it can be a embarrassing if you don't pay close attention. Like ChatGpt reviewed a client's employee handbook and said that it needed certain things in it that it already had. It didn't recognize it. It didn't see it. And then when I when I double checked it, I had to go back to Chat GBT and say, "Can you check again because it looks like it does have this." And then ChatGpt would reply back, "Oh, yeah, it does. Sorry." You know, and then they say, "This happened to me. By the way, I mentioned before, you know, I have a piece this week in the Guardian uh where I looked at small business surveys." So, I use chat GBT to help me with my research. And I said, "Review these surveys and tell me if you see any common themes or whatever. You know, what are you finding?" And it would give me wrong themes. It would be like this survey mentioned that X% of small business owners felt this way. And I go to I actually have to go and I'm checking the survey because you have you got to fact check all this stuff and it's wrong. It's like wrong numbers or it wasn't in there at all. You know, I used it to uh to create a LinkedIn uh post. I put a transcript of a podcast in and said, "Turn this into a 600word LinkedIn post uh that I can use to highlight the the podcast." And please use actual quotes from the people talking on the podcast. It absolutely made up the quotes. Not one of the quotes existed. Yeah, it's it's so it this gets back to the beginning of this conversation, right? There's no way you're relying on on AI for your core operations. There's no way you are replacing your employees with AI when it can't even perform a simple task like the one you just mentioned yet. Now, don't get me wrong, a lot of the stuff that it does is great and super helpful. And you asked, what am I using? I am leaning on it. I'm looking at it, but I still, you know, with a grain of salt, I look at it, you know what I mean? I tell you where it's also going, which I find interesting. I mentioned this to you before we started recording, like I am on Twitter X, for better or for worse. And um Twitter quietly rolled out this feature that I've been using a lot. Um you know, they have, you know, they've got their own AI called Gro. Um it's just similar to chat GPT but it's using it's being trained on Twitter's data um for their you know for their large language model. And now on every single tweet that you see on Twitter um next to the time stamp there's a little symbol for the Grock symbol. It's like a little circle for Grock. Try clicking on it because what it does is it attempts to do like an AI reasoning of the tweet to try to fact check it or to give you some context or background to it. And I'm not saying it's perfect, but I can see where it's going, you know, and that kind of excites me as well. We've all been so unreliable with with all of this stuff and the news that we're getting um here. AI is trying to be used to give some type of a balanced and I'm not saying they succeed every time, but um it's getting there. It's getting better. It's it's exciting. Um you know, it's that's the kind of AI that I like to use in my life, but it is um nowhere near something I'm going to rely on is replace an employee with. Forget it. Interesting. anything you're working on, Jean, that we should be looking for this week? Well, Lauren, yeah, I'm gonna I'm actually gonna write about this topic as well. And then also, I'm writing a piece for entrepreneur just on uh I haven't done this in a while, just sharing some some travel thoughts. Uh reducing costs when you travel as a business traveler. So, um again, I haven't I haven't written one of those in a few years, so I'm I'm kind of looking forward to doing that. That sounds good. Gene Marks is a CPA who writes weekly on small business for the Guardian, The Hill, the Philadelphia Enquire, The Washington Times, the Chicago Daily Herald, Forbes, and Entrepreneur. You can also hear him on ABC Radio's Eye on the World with John Bachelor. Gan hosts two small business podcasts with Paychecks Corporation and the Hartford. Thank you, Jean. Thank you, Lauren. I really appreciate it. And we will talk again next week. Sounds good. Have a great week, everybody.