Doomsday Fatigue

[Music] hello everyone welcome to what used to be the 21 hats podcast and is now the business Advantage TV podcast I'm your host Lauren Feldman in last week's episode I asked our panel of business owners this question would you be doing anything differently with your business if you knew for sure that a second shutdown order was coming it seemed like a pretty straightforward question to me but it triggered one of our guests Jay goz who called it stupid and encouraged the other panelists not to answer it I was so taken about by Jay's response that I did a poor job of explaining why I thought the question was legitimate and important I really didn't know where to begin so this week we decided to take another crack edit one-on-one Jay and me to see if we could get on the same page and at least to some extent I think we succeeded I think we get a better understanding of how Jay is coping with these stressful times that said I still think Jay's somewhat in denial there's a part of him it seems to me that continues to believe that so long as his employees and his customers wear masks he and his business will be fine no matter how much the pandemic rages around the country but maybe that confidence helps explain why Jay's been a successful entrepreneur for more than four decades as Jay likes to say there's a thin line between being a Visionary and being delusional he acknowledges he's been on both sides of that line the episode is titled doomsday [Music] fatigue first of all I just want to point out that you and I have known each other for a long time I think you know it's definitely more than 10 years maybe 14 now you know we met at Inc magazine and uh when I went to the New York Times you came along and uh you were my lead blogger we must have worked together on I don't know hundreds of of blog posts so I feel like I've I've had a pretty good window into the way you think the way you run your business and yet uh you you took me by surprise last week when we taped last week's episode uh I asked you a question that that kind of seemed to trigger you a little bit the question was uh that I asked if you knew uh that we were going to go into another shutdown would you be doing anything differently right now and uh we've had a chance to think about it uh over the past week we've talked about it a little bit um can you tell me now what was it about that question uh that got to you so in hindsight yeah it took me a few minutes talking to you okay fair enough but so I do know myself to know what what happened like I my nerves are a little shocked it's been 15 weeks and I after that I did consult a doctor I talked to Dr Nick Riviera and um he says I'm wait where where do I know that name from um he does a lot of TV work on The Simpsons um he diagnosed it as doomsday fatigue that I have is that a real phrase from The Simpsons yeah no I just made that one up okay but doomsday Dr Nick I I have doomsday fatigue I got to tell you what is that I'm just a little worn out you you watch TV and like all they want to do is get the headline so they set here's an example they go this is the highest unemployment since of depression you shut the businesses down how could it not be the high I mean one has nothing to do with the other we're gonna talk about this I don't know if we want to dive into it right now okay but but the point is everything is doomsday oh my God this isn't going to recover for five years and I think just hearing about if it comes back it's like we don't know that it's going to come back I'm I'm not argu it was a fair question I guess but I I'm just I'm just every day I got to deal with it and then on top of that and I don't want I don't I hate whining and I'm not whining I'm just saying it the way it is we went from the pandemic to the riots in Chicago it's been a challenging time to say the least I wouldn't say I'm burned out I wouldn't say I'm stressed out the whole thing's disorienting every day I'm dealing with new stuff that like who would have ever imagined oh your business is going to be shut down for 12 weeks and you're going to have to figure out how to reopen and then your employees are going to be freaked out because they're all afraid of getting sick and then some of them making more money sitting at home on unemployment it's just been a whole new game and I'm dealing with it and I'm navigating it and I'm happy to say things are going nicely we open business is back but um yeah it caught me at a an odd moment and yes I was trigger happy so let's go back to the question that triggered you I think another way of asking it would have been and maybe this would have been a better way uh are you doing anything now that you would regret if we had to shut down again absolutely you know what in a c State a week later if you ask me that question well I'm asking you now are you okay I'll tell you um yeah I had an opportunity to take over another store and um I thought that it was a it was a great opportunity and I thought long and hard about it and I said to myself we talked a little bit about it you mentioned it on the podcast you were you were it's that seemed like attempting opportunity it was and I realized that at this stage of my career if what I do is called a career I need to to to make more money less than I need to lose money and um I just decided I don't know what's coming in a few months and I like I said I'm doing nicely now we're paying you know business is back I'm I'm getting more headro in in my my my my credit line I don't need to I my entire career of 42 years I'm always one step out there I'm always just chasing the next opportunity and I decided that I made a deal with the guy I'll work with you to get some of your business to me but I don't need another store I don't need five more employees meaning you're going to pay him for access to his clients yes and I'll tell you the other thing I'm doing now that I frankly your question made me think about this I am continuing to try to get another bank line part of me I've kind of worked my way out of the cash bind okay I really don't need it but I realize I just as soon have it because if things get bad again I'm going to need it and the the the mistake I made I've only made one major mistake in the last couple years I kept think you know the phrase dry powder meaning you've got some cash on the side I have a building with no mortgage on it so I always thought oh I got dry powder no problem well good luck trying to get a loan on the building when the world's falling apart and all the banks look at you if you're a retailer like you're going out of business so I have been trying for three months to get a mortgage on the building and I can't get one so now that things are getting better I think I'll be able to get a loan and I'm going to take the loan because I'd rather have a loan and have the cash I can always pay it back that's interesting you know there are a lot of people who reflexively think that taking on debt like that is the risest thing you can do and you're saying this isn't even my opinion this is the way business Works cash is why you go broke you don't go broke because you have Bank debt or any you go broke because you run out of cash I'd rather have the cash I can pay it back you know they say cash is King cash is King I'd rather have another mortgage and have the cash sitting somewhere than need the cash and not be able to get the cash so so going back to that uh question again coming at it from a slightly different angle um do you have it take a different angle keep trying different angles until you piss me off go ahead that's what I'm here for Give Me Your Best Shot I know the numbers in Chicago are pretty good right now very good but it's exploding around the country I think cases are rising in 45 States um you know there's no guarantee that any place is uh is safe from uh a continuation of the first wave or uh a second wave so let me ask you this is there any question in your mind about whether you should have opened up when you did I mean just to put this in perspective yeah I I don't think this is the case for you but with a with a restaurant for example that that would be a very real concern to reopen a restaurant you you got to buy a lot of food you got to clean the place you got to do all rehire people you got to do all kinds of things to get ready and then if you shut down again 2 weeks later and people aren't wearing masks that's the difference in a restaurant you can't eat and have a mask on so there is more exposure there they're not wearing masks is there any question in your mind about whether uh it was the right thing to do to to reopen uh or if you have to close down again you just have to close down again um a all my employees are wearing masks all the customers are wearing masks we have plastic Shields everywhere and I have a person is cleaning up constantly so I think I think we're in good shape something could happen but I feel like but but that's not necessarily responsive to my question you're talking about what you're doing in your operation and I'm sure you're being as careful as you can be but despite that you could get a second wave in Chicago and it could be out of your hands you could be forced to shut down I wouldn't regret opening because there's no downside to being open you didn't have to spend a lot of money to reopen no I've got the it's not like a restaurant where you bought food and stuff I I I hope that it doesn't happen and I will tell you even back 3 four months ago when Karen said I guarantee it's coming there and I kind of flipped out on that because it's like what do you mean you guarantee it now that I've seen this play out I understand where she was coming from you know until you've seen it it's truly hard to get your hands around your head around this so no I'm taking it at one day at a time and um I think it won't get shut down again but I can't be sure of it and um and I'll tell you what's helped my head a lot I sto watching the news it's just it makes you crazy and I'm so glad you said that that I I think that's that's another interesting point that I want to get at you've said often you I mean you you just you can't worry about every eventuality every possible thing that could go wrong you'd never be able to get out of bed in the morning let alone build a business and I understand that and yet there's there's a line somewhere because you do need to know the facts you need to know what's going on okay I W I lied I watch it uh when I work out in the morning for a little bit I watch half an hour that's it but but more than that okay to seeing the same thing oh and then seeing the nonsense of people getting in large crowds without mask on it that's why we're having this problem and I'll tell you what else is is wearing on me a little bit I read articles from business owners and they say things like well I couldn't get my employees to come back to work they're making more money unemployment this is exactly what a guy said and I don't feel like it's my right to take money away from them and then later in the article he says I might be closing the business and I just want to scream like for God's sakes business owners out there your number one responsibility is staying in business so you and your employees have somewhere to go to work every day to suggest that it's not right to call your employees back to work because they're making more on unemployment how is that going to help anybody when they're all out of work and you're out of business or even just when the end of July comes and they stop getting the extra $600 a week yeah and and this wasn't one per I read an article it was like three or four of them all lamenting about how you know they can't get and then one says I don't think it's right to get them to come back for my own enrichment what is being the boss if it's not for your that's like that's what your job is you're supposed to have people work for you so you can make money in your business that the definition of owning a business it's just and I say I hate to see people go out of business and I hate to see people put themselves out of business and I see people doing stuff all over the place that I say to myself okay you just you just uh Cast Your Fate you're going out of business I'd like to go back to something else that you said several times on on the podcast that kind of stopped me uh in my tracks and that is when we first started talking about reopening when I asked you about the warnings that I was hearing from the epidemiologists from the medical experts your answer uh several times was oh you know those medical they get a paycheck every week they don't understand explain that to me it's first of all it's an extremely difficult decision to open because nobody wants anybody to get sick and I certainly don't want to do anything irresponsible for them or for me or for the customers but it's easy to be a doctor here I'll give you an example a lawyer if you ask a lawyer about making a decision of anything they'll say oh don't do it you can get sued for that you know if you ask somebody in the emergency room maybe you shouldn't drive a car because look at all the car accidents in here so you ask a doctor should we open oh no somebody could get sick I meant they get a paycheck every Friday they don't have to worry about paying their bills every week so it's easy for them to just say oh no wait but do you really think that that's what they're thinking no no I want to know where the line is though I mean should we we obviously can't wait until the very last person has it couldn't the line be on the other side of following the guidelines sure absolutely I'm not at all suggesting should be you know open too early I'm just saying but you were sort of suggesting it at the time no no I was suggesting that the doctors just keep saying oh we're we shouldn't open but I've never heard they they weren't saying never they weren't saying never they were saying let's follow these guidelines I'm following the guidelines I believe in the guidelines I support the guidelines you might be but that you know it makes a big difference if around the country entire states are not yeah yeah Dr Nick said I didn't have to talk to you too long about this because it was my health so I just okay all right he says I need to get some support and nurturing from you a little bit he said you always do Jay I'm looking out for your business no I I want to understand how you think because I know uh there are a lot of people um who who approach this the same way you know what I'm gonna give you it's it's really at this point it's half about what you think and it's half emotions because this has been an extremely trying time so I'll just give you a s snapshot of a day we open up my home store has we sell plants and flowers so I was able to open because we do sell the landscapers so I we got busy as soon as we open customers want to get out of the house they're all wearing masks they're all very polite everybody's waiting in line it was a pleasure one guy comes in without a mask he doesn't want to wear a mask and they tell him he's got to wear a mask he goes back to Yelp and Fries us he's a doctor and he's he's a surgeon and the Mas are baloney and it's over you know whole thing's overblown the hospitals aren't full and he goes into this whole tie raade to be fair it was one guy yeah I was going to say you've dealt with bad reviews before not like this though we're in a difficult time now for God's sakes so let's go back uh to thinking how you thinking about the the economy you mentioned the thing about unemployment and how you hate to see how that's reported they're just statistics no no I don't mind the statistic what I mind is taking that statistic and saying this is as bad as a depression well in terms of the numbers it is but the depression the world was falling apart here they made stores closed for a while they made businesses closed right but here's the thing I I think it gets to this gets to an important point because you said this a couple of times you have said on the podcast um that we had as good an economy as we've ever had in January and February why in the world wouldn't it just come back to that and I haven't been able to break through you're saying that I think there are a lot of good reasons not to expect that to happen right away okay I'm not saying for sure that's going to happen I'm just saying that there's reason to be optimistic that it it could be okay but you've you said you asked it why in the world wouldn't it happen well there there some obvious good reasons why it might not happen how about couldn't it happen how about how about the guy that that I I I was watching he says this is going to take five years to recover from it's like oh give me a break right again that's one person but yeah I know it gets back to could we be a little optimistic could we just not it's back to the Doomsday the the Doomsday fatigue could we just try to not make everything the worst possible thing it could possibly be could we just say the economy was really good before things went bad um they might come back quickly there's a lot of pent up demand from people being closed and um you know could could we just not make it out to be the worst possible thing in the world could we that's all I'm asking Lauren could we just be a little optimistic that's a great question I feel like my job as the host of this podcast is to be a buzz kill no to to deal with reality to to talk about the situation as I perceive it and to think through contingencies so when I ask you what you're thinking is if you were to have to shut down again I'm not predicting it I'm not hoping for for it I'm not expecting it but I'm saying as a business owner you need to be prepared for contingencies yes I absolutely am and I'm telling you I learned very quickly from just this last one I just talked to my kid about it yesterday dad what do we need to get another mortgage for I go because it doesn't hurt any I'll have the money we can we can pay off a line with it and then just give it back if we don't want it like i' I've learned from this last one You' referred to yourself frequently as a recovering entrepreneur a holic uh you've given examples you know where you you reached too far you know you thought you'd completely recovered but in the last couple years you bought a firhouse that you had big ideas for and then you decided to just sell it uh I'm you've joked at times that that you're somewhat delusional no I said there's a thin line between Visionary and delusional and I've certainly been on both sides of that so yes I have been delusional is that something that entrepreneur has to be I don't know that the word has to be um I don't I won't speak for everyone I'll only tell you that one of my friends said after one of my deals didn't work he goes Jay that's how you got where you're at I mean I I don't I don't in my own personal thing if I didn't have that personality trait I don't a frame shop with three employees I mean that's where I would be I have 110 employees and four businesses so I think this is an accurate statement I don't think you're going to ever talk to a successful a entrepreneur that didn't have some things they did along the way that didn't work I mean they don't always work and and there's a great book called The hypomanic Edge that I read 10 years ago it's written by a psych psychiatrist or psychologist and he said hypomania is by definition you think you can do anything and you've got self and he went through the whole list of hypomania and then he went through the whole list of what entrepreneurship characteristics and they're the same list and I have to tell you it gave me a window into my soul and I called the guy and I thank him and he said you're not the first person to called me so yeah I recognize now I'm hypomanic I think I can do anything and now I think things threw a little bit more than usual before I go jumping well well that's what I wanted to ask you do you think this experience the last three and a half months or whatever it's been with this crisis has it changed you not really because I already figured it out before I already knew that I didn't need to keep on The Fast Track and I wanted to just so so the only thing like I said the only thing that I learned from it is I should have gotten a mortgage on the building and kept the money somewhere other than that I was already off the trying to take over the world thing my business I never thought I'd use this phrase never never never thought I'd use this phrase my business is big enough I I just I don't need to own a $50 million company it's fine not only fine I'm happy it's not about balancing my stage it's it's about alignment and I I would say this at any stage you figure out what you want I don't want any more stress because I've got it under control really well before I mean things were really just gotten easy that's why and for an example I'm not buying that guy's store I just I don't need five more employees you've talked a lot on the podcast about you know you can find opportunities in a in a moment like this and you told us about how during the Great Recession you bought that big uh wehouse that changed the dynamic of your business uh so you're you're certainly open to Opportunities and this one you know somebody who was closing down anyway it initially it looked to you like it could be a really good opportunity what what what changed okay this is what changed to be fair I figured out the the the the volume he was doing and I realized to get the volume to where I needed to be I I'd have to open Sundays it's in the suburbs it's harder to find help on Sundays and I realized this isn't going to be as easy as it looks and frankly the amount of money I'd make on the store it just isn't worth it and and I that's why I had to think about it um so so if something else fell into my lap that was fairly simple I'm not saying I wouldn't do it but in this case I had to figure out there was two issues one is could I do enough volume to make the money that be worth trouble and two this would put a stress on every it would put a stress on a lot of different things he's got four older people working there using my computer system over theirs is not going to be an easy transition I just did an assessment and figured out it just isn't worth it and um for me that's quite a uh there's no question 10 years ago I would have already been there I that that's quite the uh change so I I am still recovering is the point it sounds like I haven't really pissed you off yet um no you really lost your yeah I'm youve kind of lost your Best pitch did I miss anything oh I had something just yesterday guy goes home from Jason home and he he writes a Yelp thing with oh there's snobby in there and it's like what are you talking about you know it's it's frustrating he called and asked for me yesterday to apologize he said I came in your store and I realized I was in a really bad mood when I came in there did you do anything that prompted that apology or did he just Yes actually we put a response on the Yelp thing but he actually that's that's smart what what did you say in that response because that there's an art to that I don't remember exactly the our typical response is did you argue with him or no no no I never argue with anybody I go I'm sorry you felt except me no except you well that's that's why you're you're here um I know I said I I'm I'm horrified you feel that way and here's who we are and how we got here and um you know what I I teach my employees you know how to save a customer and you know s sympathize you know I understand you you you should explain that when you say how to save a customer you're talking about an acronym sa yes sa s sympathize like I can understand why you're upset I mean wouldn't that make you feel good if you had a problem in a store that they actually understand and then a is act if there's something wrong we say as soon as you leave I'm going to call the manager I'll call the vendor I'll you do something about it V is in our case Vindication of simply saying we usually catch stuff like this and then and this is true we're really embarrassed this happened all true we are embarrassed it happened and then lastly just eat something if appropriate eat free delivery eat what I find is when when companies messed up even if you go just pick up dinner and it's messed up all right we'll give you a credit we'll put it in the register okay the credit in the register doesn't make up for the fact that we didn't get french fries with our dinner it just doesn't do it I mean if I own that company I swear to God I sck somebody in a car and I drink I drive the food to their house that's what I would do um so so so we gave a a nice message we never argue with him say and he called me and I said you know what I really appreciate the call you know any good news you get these days is good I the only thing that's gone right lately is I got plenty of toilet paper all right so Jay much earlier in this whole crisis we talked about which businesses are going to make it and which aren't and you came up with a uh five-part stress test um that you suggested for that any business could use to assess where they stand and their likelihood of of making it through and you know even early on when things were looking bad you you felt pretty good you felt like you were in pretty good shape I'm curious has anything changed do you still pass your own stress test I feel better actually because we're open we're busy and I've I'm paying down why you take us through the stress test okay so the first question is how is business before this all happened I'm suggesting if you were struggling before this unless something Chang that's a problem I mean my business was going really nicely before this so that's number one number two what kind of legal obligations do you have to people do you have a partner that lives in bulatan the 73 that's calling you screaming going I want my money back close the business down I don't have any Partners i' I've got almost no landlords so I don't have uh you know we vendors you owe a lot of money to I don't have any of that so if you've got someone putting the screws to you like that that's a huge problem um number three where's your head at maybe you're tired maybe you've had enough maybe you've got enough money you don't need to work anymore maybe you're just uh are already maybe you were already thinking closing your business so there's nothing wrong with any of that it's just in my case I'm not going anywhere I like going to work every day I like supporting my employees I like the whole thing so I'm as energetic today as I was 20 years ago four do you have any key employees that left during this whole thing if you have a smaller business especially and you've got a key architect or a key salesperson or a key designer that could be that could hurt a lot and I don't have any of that everybody that works for me came back and lastly is what kind of financial resources do you have um do you have cash in the bank do you have credit lines I know this is weird to the average person but having cash or having a credit line same thing access to Capital is there any property you can mortgage um I'm in better shape now than I was in six months ago because business is picking up and and I be the first to admit the PPP thing was a lifesaver I just want to tell you it's not called a bailout I call it it's a disaster relief is what it was so you know good for the government for doing that and good to everybody that was able to take advantage of it Jay goz thank you for taking this time thank you for letting me Rake you over the calls and uh think this all through again thanks for listening everybody this episode was produced by Jess thubron founder of blank word Productions remember we started the 21 hats podcast to help business owners feel a little less isolated to let them know they aren't the only ones fighting these battles if you got something out of this conversation please help us reach more people tell a friend subscribe and review us wherever you get your podcasts follow us on Twitter at 21 hats and let me know if you have a question or a comment or a topic you'd like us to cover Mya email address is L Feldman 21h hats.com see you next time [Music]