Scenario Analysis for Business Exit Planning: A Case Study

An owner in his mid-50s received an unsolicited offer from a private-equity-backed strategic buyer. The deal paid $7 million cash at close, up to $3.5 million as an earnout, and $1 million of rollover equity projected to grow to about $3 million. If earnout and rollover only half materialized, paying off $4.2 million of mortgages and funding a $1.5 million donor advised fund could deplete investable assets by his mid-70s. The headline price did not guarantee a durable post-exit plan.